Ua hiki mai ka makahiki 2023 i ka hopena o ka makahiki, ke nānā nei i hope i kēia makahiki, hiki ke wehewehe ʻia ka mākeke aila maka honua ma ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka hana OPEC+ a me nā haunaele geopolitical he mea hiki ʻole ke wānana ʻia, piʻi a iho.

1. Ka nānā ʻana i ke ʻano o ke kumukūʻai o ka mākeke aila maka honua ma 2023

I kēia makahiki, ua hōʻike ka ʻaila maka honua (Brent futures) ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa i kahi ʻano iho i lalo, akā ua loli nui ke kikowaena o ke koʻikoʻi o ke kumukūʻai. I ka lā 31 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ke kumukūʻai awelika o ka 2023 Brent crude oil futures he 82.66 US dollars/barela, i lalo he 16.58% mai ke kumukūʻai awelika o ka makahiki i hala. Hōʻike ke ʻano o nā kumukūʻai ʻaila maka honua i kēia makahiki i nā ʻano o "ua neʻe ke kikowaena o ke koʻikoʻi i lalo, ʻo ka mea mua haʻahaʻa a laila kiʻekiʻe", a ua puka mai nā pilikia hoʻokele waiwai like ʻole e like me ka pilikia panakō ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma lalo o ke kua o ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku paneʻe i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki, e hopena ana i nā kumukūʻai ʻaila haʻahaʻa, i lalo a hiki i ka 16%. Ma hope o ke komo ʻana i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki, mahalo i ke kākoʻo ʻana o nā ʻāina hana aila he nui e like me ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka hana ʻana o OPEC+, ua hoʻomaka nā kumu e hōʻike, ua ʻoi aku ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka hana ʻana o OPEC+ ma mua o 2.6 miliona barela/lā, e like me 2.7% o ka hana ʻaila maka honua, e hoʻokele ana i nā kumukūʻai aila i ka piʻi ʻana o kahi 20%, ua hoʻi hou ka futures oil crude Brent i kahi pae kiʻekiʻe ma luna o $80/barela.

ʻO ka pae Brent 2023 he $71.84- $96.55 / BBL, me ke kiʻekiʻe loa e kū ana ma Kepakemapa 27 a ʻo ka haʻahaʻa loa ma Iune 12. ʻO $70- $90 no ka barela ka pae hana nui no nā futures aila maka Brent i ka makahiki 2023. Ma ka lā 31 o ʻOkakopa, ua hāʻule nā ​​​​futures aila maka WTI a me Brent ma $12.66 / barela a me $9.14 / barela mai ke kiʻekiʻe o ka makahiki.

Ma hope o ke komo ʻana i ʻOkakopa, ma muli o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kaua ma waena o Palestine a me ʻIseraʻela, ua piʻi nui ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila maka honua ma lalo o ka uku pilikia geopolitical, akā me ka hakakā ʻole i hoʻopilikia i ka hana o nā ʻāina hana nui o ka ʻaila, ua nāwaliwali nā pilikia lako, a ua hoʻonui ʻo OPEC a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka hana ʻaila maka, ua hāʻule koke ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila. Ma ke ʻano kikoʻī, ua hoʻomaka ke kaua ma ʻOkakopa 7, a ma ʻOkakopa 19, ua piʻi aʻe ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila maka Brent ma $4.23 / barela. Ma ʻOkakopa 31, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila maka Brent he $87.41 / barela, i lalo he $4.97 / barela mai ʻOkakopa 19, e holoi ana i nā loaʻa āpau mai ka hakakā ʻIseraʻela-Palestinian.

Ii. Ka nānā ʻana i nā kumu nui e hoʻohuli ai i ka mākeke ʻaila maka honua ma 2023

I ka makahiki 2023, ua piʻi aʻe nā mana macroeconomic a me geopolitical i nā kumukūʻai aila maka. ʻO ka hopena o ka macroeconomic i ka aila maka e kau nui ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao koi. I Malaki o kēia makahiki, ua pahū ka pilikia panakō ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hoʻolauna nui ʻia nā ʻōlelo hawkish a ka Federal Reserve i ʻApelila, ua kau ʻia ka pilikia o ka palena ʻaiʻē ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma lalo o ke kaomi i Mei, a ʻo ke kaiapuni uku paneʻe kiʻekiʻe i hoʻokumu ʻia e ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku paneʻe i Iune ua kaumaha i ka hoʻokele waiwai, a ʻo ka nāwaliwali a me ka manaʻo bearish ma ka pae hoʻokele waiwai i kāohi pololei i ke kumukūʻai aila honua mai Malaki a Iune. Ua lilo hoʻi ia i kumu maikaʻi ʻole i hiki ʻole ke piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai aila honua i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki. Ma nā ʻōlelo geopolitical, i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kaua ʻIseraʻela-Palestinian ma ʻOkakopa 7, ua hoʻonui hou ʻia ka pilikia geopolitical, a ua hoʻi ke kumukūʻai aila honua i kahi kiʻekiʻe kokoke i $90 / barela ma lalo o ke kākoʻo o kēia, akā me ka nānā hou ʻana o ka mākeke i ka hopena maoli o kēia hanana, ua emi ka hopohopo e pili ana i nā pilikia lako, a ua hāʻule nā ​​​​kumukūʻai aila maka.

I kēia manawa, ma ke ʻano o nā kumu nui e hoʻohuli ai, hiki ke hōʻuluʻulu ʻia e like me kēia mau ʻano: inā paha e hoʻopilikia ka hakakā ʻIseraʻela-Palestinian i ka hana o nā mea hana aila nui, ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā hōʻemi hana OPEC+ a hiki i ka hopena o ka makahiki, ka hoʻomaha ʻana o nā hoʻopaʻi kūʻē iā Venezuela e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana aila maka o US i ka kiʻekiʻe loa o ka makahiki, ka holomua o ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ke kumukūʻai ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ka hana maoli o ke koi ʻĀsia, ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana ʻana o Iran a me ka loli o ka manaʻo o nā mea kālepa.

He aha ke kumu ma hope o ka loli mau o ka mākeke ʻaila maka honua i ka makahiki 2023? Ma lalo o ka haunaele geopolitical, he aha ke kuhikuhi o ka mākeke ʻaila maka e hiki mai ana? Ma Nowemapa 3, 15:00-15:45, e hoʻolaha ola ʻo Longzhong Information i ka mākeke makahiki i ka makahiki 2023, nāna e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kahi wehewehe kikoʻī o ke kumukūʻai ʻaila, nā wahi wela macroeconomic, nā kumu lako a me ke koi a me nā wānana kumukūʻai ʻaila e hiki mai ana, e wānana i ke kūlana mākeke i ka makahiki 2024 ma mua, a kōkua i ka hoʻokele ʻana i ka hoʻolālā ʻoihana!