Ua hiki mai ʻo 2023 i ka hopena o ka makahiki, e nānā ana i kēia makahiki, hiki ke wehewehe ʻia ka mākeke aila ʻaila honua i ka ʻoki ʻana o ka hana OPEC + a me nā haunaele geopolitical he hiki ʻole ke ʻike ʻia, piʻi a i lalo.

1. Ka nānā ʻana i ke kumu kūʻai o ka mākeke aila honua ma 2023

I kēia makahiki, ua hōʻike ʻia ka ʻaila ʻaila honua (Brent futures) holoʻokoʻa i kahi hiʻohiʻona i lalo, akā ua loli nui ke kumu kūʻai o ka umekaumaha. Ma ʻOkakopa 31, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau o 2023 Brent crude oil futures he 82.66 US dollars/barrel, i lalo o 16.58% mai ke kumu kūʻai awelika i ka makahiki i hala. ʻO ke ʻano o nā kumukūʻai aila ʻaila honua i kēia makahiki e hōʻike ana i nā ʻano o "ua neʻe ke kikowaena o ka gravity i lalo, ʻo ka haʻahaʻa mua a laila kiʻekiʻe", a ua puka mai nā pilikia hoʻokele waiwai e like me ka pilikia panakō ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku paneʻe i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki, e hopena ana i nā kumukūʻai aila haʻahaʻa, e like me ka 16%. Ma hope o ke komo ʻana i ka hapa ʻelua o ka makahiki, mahalo i ke kākoʻo ʻana o nā ʻāina hana ʻaila he nui e like me ka ʻoki ʻana o OPEC + production, ua hoʻomaka nā kumu e hōʻike, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻoki kumulative OPEC + ma mua o 2.6 miliona barela / lā, e like me 2.7% o ka hana ʻaila ʻaila honua. , ke alakaʻi nei i nā kumukūʻai aila i ka piʻi ʻana ma kahi o 20%, ua hoʻi hou ka ʻaila ʻaila Brent i kahi kiʻekiʻe ma luna o $80 / barela.

ʻO ka pae Brent 2023 he $71.84- $96.55 / BBL, me ka helu kiʻekiʻe loa i ka lā 27 Kepakemapa a me ka haʻahaʻa loa ma Iune 12. ʻO $ 70- $ 90 no ka barela ka papa hana nui no nā aila ʻaila Brent e hiki mai ana i 2023. Ma ʻOkakopa 31, WTI. Ua hāʻule ka ʻaila ʻaila Brent i ka wā e hiki mai ana e $12.66 / barela a me $9.14 / barela mai ke kiʻekiʻe o ka makahiki.

Ma hope o ke komo ʻana i ʻOkakopa, ma muli o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hakakā Palestinian-Israeli, ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai aila honua ma lalo o ke kumukūʻai pilikia geopolitical, akā me ka hakakā ʻaʻole e pili ana i ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā ʻāina nui e hana ana i ka aila, ua nāwaliwali ka hoʻolako ʻana, a me OPEC a me United. Ua hoʻonui nā mokuʻāina i ka hana ʻaila ʻaila, hāʻule koke ke kumukūʻai aila. ʻO ka mea kikoʻī, ua hoʻomaka ka hakakā ma ʻOkakopa 7, a mai ka lā 19 ʻOkakopa, ua piʻi aʻe ka ʻaila ʻaila Brent e $4.23 / barela. Ma ka lā 31 ʻOkakopa, ʻo $87.41 / barela ka wā e hiki mai ana ka aila ʻaila Brent, i lalo i $ 4.97 / barela mai ʻOkakopa 19, e holoi ana i nā lanakila āpau mai ka hakakā ʻana o Israeli-Palestinian.

Ii. Ka nānā ʻana i nā kumu koʻikoʻi o ka mākeke aila honua ma 2023

I ka makahiki 2023, ua hoʻonui ʻia nā hopena macroeconomic a me geopolitical i nā kumukūʻai aila. ʻO ka hopena o ka macroeconomic ma luna o ka ʻaila crude ka mea nui i ka ʻaoʻao koi. I Malaki o kēia makahiki, ua pahū ka pilikia panakō ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hoʻolauna ikaika ʻia nā ʻōlelo hawkish o ka Federal Reserve i ʻApelila, ka pilikia o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻaiʻē ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma lalo o ke kaomi ma Mei, a me ka ukupanee kiʻekiʻe. ʻO ke kaiapuni i hoʻokumu ʻia e ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku paneʻe i Iune i kaumaha i ka hoʻokele waiwai, a ʻo ka nāwaliwali a me ka manaʻo bearish ma ka pae hoʻokele waiwai i hoʻopaʻa pololei i ke kumukūʻai aila honua mai Malaki a Iune. Ua lilo nō hoʻi ia i kumu kumu maikaʻi ʻole ʻaʻole hiki ke piʻi ke kumukūʻai aila honua i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki. Ma ka geopolitical hua'ōlelo, i ka outbreak o ka Israeli-Palestinian paio ma Okatoba 7, ka geopolitical pilikia hou hooikaika, a me ka honua aila kumukūʻai hoʻi i kahi kiʻekiʻe kokoke i $90 / barela ma lalo o ke kākoʻo o keia, akā, me ka makeke hou nana i ka maoli. ka hopena o kēia hanana, ua emi ka hopohopo e pili ana i nā pilikia lako, a hāʻule nā ​​kumukūʻai aila.

I kēia manawa, ma ke ʻano o nā mea hoʻoikaika nui, hiki ke hōʻuluʻulu ʻia e like me kēia mau ʻano: inā paha e hoʻopilikia ka hakakā ʻIseraʻela-Palestinian i ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā mea hana aila nui, ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka hana o OPEC + i ka hopena o ka makahiki, ka hoʻomaha. ʻO nā hoʻopaʻi kūʻē iā Venezuela e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana aila ʻaila ʻAmelika i kahi kiʻekiʻe loa o ka makahiki, ka holomua o ka hoʻonui ʻana ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ka hana maoli o ka koi ʻana o Asia, ka piʻi ʻana o ka hana Iranian a me ka loli. i ka manao kalepa.

He aha ka loiloi ma hope o ka volatility o ka mākeke aila honua ma 2023? Ma lalo o ka pilikia geopolitical, he aha ke ala o ka mākeke aila ma hope? Ma Nowemapa 3, 15:00-15:45, e hoʻolaha ʻo Longzhong Information i kahi hoʻolaha ola o ka mākeke makahiki ma 2023, e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i ka wehewehe kikoʻī o ke kumukūʻai aila, nā wahi wela macroeconomic, nā lako a me nā kumu kumu a me ke kumukūʻai aila e hiki mai ana. wānana, wānana i ke kūlana mākeke ma 2024 ma mua, a kōkua i ka hoʻokele ʻana i ka hoʻolālā ʻoihana!