Ma kahi pōkole, ua hala ʻo Nowemapa, a e komo ʻo 2023 i ka mahina i hala. No ka mākeke urea, ua loli ka mākeke urea i Nowemapa. Ke hoʻomau nei ke kulekele a me ka nūhou o ka mahina i ka hopena nui ma ka mākeke. I Nowemapa, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai holoʻokoʻa a hāʻule, akā ʻaʻole kiʻekiʻe ka piʻi a hāʻule paha. I mua o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka manaʻo o ka mākeke a me nā loli i ka wā e hiki mai ana a me ke kūlana koi, hiki anei i ka urea ke hoʻomaka i kahi hoʻomaha mākeke i Dekemaba, a he aha ke ʻano o ka mākeke e pau ai ka urea i 2023?

Hoʻolako 1: Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mālama ʻana i nā mea hana i Dekemaba, a ua emi iki ka Nissan.

Me ka mālama mau ʻana o nā ʻoihana poʻo kinoea i Dekemaba, e emi mālie ka hana ʻana o ka urea i kēlā me kēia lā, ma o ka manawa mālama i manaʻo ʻia o ka ʻoihana, hoʻomaka ka manawa mālama o ka ʻoihana mai ka waena a me ka hoʻomaka o Dekemaba. Ma kēia ala, ma hope o ka waena o ka hopena o Dekemaba, ka hana ʻana o ka urea i kēlā me kēia lā a i ʻole ka emi ʻana o ka urea i kahi kokoke i 150-160,000 tons, ʻo ia hoʻi he kākoʻo maikaʻi no ka mākeke urea. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole hiki i ka emi ʻana o Nissan ke alakaʻi pololei i ka piʻi ʻana o ka mākeke, akā pili pū nō hoʻi i ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai a me ke koi e hahai. Pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia i ka hopena o Nowemapa, ua hōʻike ʻia ka mākeke urea i kahi ʻano loosening nāwaliwali, a ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka mālama ʻana o ka hāmeʻa ma hope o Dekemaba 10, i ka waena o ka pule a i ʻole, ʻo ka mākeke urea i lalo o ka manawa hoʻonui?

Hoʻolako ʻelua: Ke waiho nei nā waihona ʻoihana ma lalo o nā pae makahiki i hala

Wahi a Longzhong hōʻike i ka hōʻike ʻana mai ka lā 29 o Nowemapa, ʻo 473,400 tons ka waihona o nā ʻoihana urea home, i lalo o 517,700 tons mai ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala, ʻike maopopo ʻia ka waihona urea o kēia makahiki ma kahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, a ua lohi ka waihona no ka. he manawa lōʻihi, kahi e hana ai i kahi kākoʻo maikaʻi no ka mākeke urea. Hiki iā mākou ke ʻike ma ke ʻano o ka waihona waiwai, mai Iulai o kēia makahiki, ua haʻahaʻa ka waihona ʻoihana urea home, a ʻo nā kumukūʻai urea mai ʻAukake, aia ma kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka volatility. No laila, e kākoʻo ka waihona ʻoihana i ka lalo o ka mākeke pōkole o ka urea i kekahi ʻano.

Koi: Hoʻopaneʻe ʻia ke koi mālama ʻana, a hiki i ka mahiʻai ke hahai ma hope o ka waena o ka hopena o Dekemaba.

Mai ka market performance point of view, in November, most of the industrial just need to promote , a me kekahi mau'āina 'kūʻai nawaliwali mālama e uhi kūlana. No ka mea, ʻaʻole i hāʻule nui nā kumukūʻai urea i Nowemapa, ʻaʻole i hāʻule ke kumu kūʻai kumu kūʻai ʻo Shandong ma lalo o 2300 yuan / ton, ʻo ka mahiʻai ma muli o ka liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi, a ʻo ke kumukūʻai ma kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka haʻalulu, no laila ke koi ʻia ke koi no ka mahiʻai. lohi. I ke komo ʻana i Dekemaba, ʻoiai ʻaʻole maopopo ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka mahiʻai i ke ʻano o ka hahai ʻana ma waena, e like me nā wānana o ka manawa, e piʻi mālie ka hiki ke uhi ʻia i ka mahiʻai kūpono mai ka waena a hiki i ka hopena o Dekemaba a Ianuali, a e emi iho ka lako o ka urea i Dekemaba. a e hoʻololi ʻia ka manaʻo kūʻai ma waena, a e hoʻi hou ka mākeke.

Kumukūʻai: Ua emi ke kumu kūʻai ma mua o ka pae kūpono

E like me ka hopena o Nowemapa, Shandong urea mainstream hale hana ma 2390-2430 yuan / ton, haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala e pili ana i 300 yuan / ton, a me ke kani hou o ka lako kiʻekiʻe, ʻoiai ka waihona waiwai a me ka lohi inventory, ka mākeke. a i ʻole ma muli o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka lako a me ke koi a me nā loli i ka manaʻo, e hoʻololi mau i ka hāʻule o ke kumukūʻai, pono e kali a ʻike, ʻaʻole hiki ke overly bearish.

I kēia manawa, aia ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka mākeke urea, ʻaʻole i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka noi, a ʻo ka mālama ʻana i ka mea hana aia ma waena o ka waena, ka pōkole pōkole i waena, a i ʻole ka lalo i ka uhi kūpono, akā ʻo ia. ke hilinaʻi nei i ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai a me ka lōʻihi o ka hāʻule.