I ka hala ʻana o Nowemapa, a e komo ana ʻo 2023 i ka mahina hope loa. No ka mākeke urea, ua loli ka mākeke urea i Nowemapa. Ke hoʻomau nei ka hopena koʻikoʻi o ke kulekele a me ka nūhou o ka mahina i ka mākeke. I Nowemapa, ua piʻi a hāʻule ke kumukūʻai holoʻokoʻa, akā ʻaʻole kiʻekiʻe ka piʻi a hāʻule paha. Ke alo nei i ka loli o ka manaʻo mākeke a me nā loli i ke kūlana lako a me ke koi e hiki mai ana, hiki i ka urea ke hoʻokipa i kahi haki mākeke i Dekemaba, a he aha ke ʻano o ka mākeke e pau ai ka urea i ka makahiki 2023?

Lako 1: Ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mālama ʻana i nā lako i Dekemaba, a ua emi mālie ka Nissan.

Me ka mālama mau ʻana o nā ʻoihana poʻo kinoea i Dekemaba, e emi mālie ka hana ʻana o ka urea i kēlā me kēia lā, ma o ka manawa mālama i manaʻo ʻia o ka ʻoihana, hoʻomaka ka manawa mālama o ka ʻoihana mai ka waena a me ka hoʻomaka o Dekemaba. Ma kēia ʻano, ma hope o ka waena a hiki i ka hopena o Dekemaba, ua emi mālie ka hana ʻana o ka urea i kēlā me kēia lā a kokoke i 150-160,000 tons, ʻo ia hoʻi he kākoʻo maikaʻi no ka mākeke urea. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole hiki i ka emi ʻana o Nissan ke hoʻokele pololei i ka piʻi ʻana o ka mākeke, akā pili pū kekahi i ka pae o nā kumukūʻai a me ke koi e hahai ai. Pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia i ka hopena o Nowemapa, ua hōʻike ka mākeke urea i kahi ʻano palupalu, a ua kau ʻia ka mālama ʻana i ka hāmeʻa ma hope o Dekemaba 10, ma waena o hoʻokahi pule a i ʻole, ua emi anei ka mākeke urea i ka manawa hoʻopiha hou?

Hoʻolako ʻelua: Noho nā waihona ʻoihana ma lalo o nā pae o ka makahiki i hala

Wahi a ka ʻikepili Longzhong e hōʻike ana, ma Nowemapa 29, ʻo ka waihona o nā ʻoihana urea kūloko he 473,400 tons, i emi iho he 517,700 tons mai ka manawa like o ka makahiki i hala, ʻike maopopo ʻia aia nō ka waihona urea o kēia makahiki ma kahi pae waena haʻahaʻa, a lohi ka waihona no ka manawa lōʻihi, kahi e hoʻokumu ai i kahi kākoʻo maikaʻi no ka mākeke urea. Hiki iā mākou ke ʻike mai ke ʻano o ka waihona, mai Iulai o kēia makahiki, ua haʻahaʻa ka waihona o nā ʻoihana urea kūloko, a ʻo nā kumukūʻai urea mai ʻAukake, ua kiʻekiʻe ka loli. No laila, e kākoʻo ka waihona o nā ʻoihana i ka lalo mākeke pōkole o ka urea i kekahi ʻano.

Koi: Ua lohi ke koi mālama kālā, a hiki mai paha ka mahiʻai ma hope o ka waena a hiki i ka hopena o Dekemaba.

Mai ka manaʻo o ka hana mākeke, i Nowemapa, ʻo ka hapa nui o nā ʻoihana e pono e hoʻolaha wale, a ʻo nā waihona palupalu kalepa o kekahi mau ʻāina e uhi i nā kūlana. No ka mea ʻaʻole i hāʻule nui nā kumukūʻai urea i Nowemapa, ʻaʻole i hāʻule ke kumukūʻai hale hana Shandong ma lalo o 2300 yuan/ton ke kumukūʻai, ʻo ka mahiʻai ma muli o ka nele o ka wai, a aia ke kumukūʻai ma kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka haʻalulu, no laila ua lohi ke koi mālama no ka mahiʻai. Ke komo nei i Dekemaba, ʻoiai ʻaʻole maopopo he ʻano hahai kikowaena ka mahiʻai, e like me nā wānana manawa, ʻo ka hiki ke uhi kūpono i ka mahiʻai mai waena a hiki i ka hopena o Dekemaba a hiki i Ianuali e piʻi mālie, a e emi ka lako o ka urea i Dekemaba, a e loli ke ʻano kūʻai ma waena, a e hana hou ʻia ka mākeke.

Kumukūʻai: ʻOi aku ka haʻahaʻa o ke kumukūʻai ma mua o ka pae like

I ka hopena o Nowemapa, ʻo ka hale hana nui o Shandong urea ma 2390-2430 yuan/ton, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka manawa like o ka makahiki i hala ma kahi o 300 yuan/ton, a me ke kani hou o ka lako kiʻekiʻe, ʻoiai ka waihona ʻoihana a me ka waihona lohi, ka mākeke a i ʻole ma muli o nā loli i ka lako a me ke koi a me nā loli i ka manaʻo, e hoʻohuli mau ana, pono nō e kali a ʻike i ka hāʻule ʻana o ke kumukūʻai, ʻaʻole hiki ke bearish nui.

I kēia manawa, aia kahi hoʻoponopono i ka mākeke urea, ʻaʻole i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ke koi, a aia pū ka mālama ʻana i ka hāmeʻa ma waenakonu o ka waena, ka hakahaka pōkole ma waena, a i ʻole ke iho i lalo i ka wā e uhi kūpono ai, akā hilinaʻi mau ia i ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai a me ka lōʻihi o ka hāʻule ʻana.