Ua noho kiʻekiʻe a loli mau nā mākeke ʻEulopa i kēia pule, a ua koi ke kūlana ma ka Hikina Waena iā Chevron e pani i kāna kahua kinoea ma waho o ke kai ma Suria, a ua hoʻomau ka mākeke i ka hopohopo, akā ua kiʻekiʻe a loli mau nā kumukūʻai o TTF futures ma muli o ka lako nui o ka mākeke i kēia manawa.

Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ma muli o ka lohi o ke koi a me ka nāwaliwali o ka hopohopo, ua emi iho nā mea i hoʻokuʻu aku i ka LNG o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kēia pule, ua emi nā mea i hoʻokuʻu aku, a ua nāwaliwali ka lako o ke kinoea maka mai nā kikowaena hoʻokuʻu aku, akā ma muli o ka loli o nā ʻaelike NG futures i kēia mahina, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

a) ʻIke ākea o ka mākeke

Ma ka lā 24 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana o ke kinoea kūlohelohe (NG) o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Henry Port he 3.322 kālā US/miliona Pelekane thermal, i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ke kaʻina hana ma mua (10.17) i hoʻonui ʻia e 0.243 kālā US/miliona Pelekane thermal, he piʻi ʻana o 7.89%; ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana o ke kinoea kūlohelohe Dutch (TTF) he $15.304 / mmBTU, i piʻi aʻe he $0.114 / mmBTU mai ke kaʻina hana ma mua (10.17), a i ʻole 0.75%.

Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hōʻike nā kumukūʻai futures o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Henry Port (NG) i kahi ʻano rebound ma hope o ka emi ʻana o ka nui o ka pule, ua hōʻike nā kumukūʻai futures kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kahi ʻano iho i kēia pule, akā ma muli o ka hopena o ka hoʻololi ʻaelike, ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai futures NG.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻokuʻu aku, ua hāʻule nā ​​​​mea hoʻokuʻu aku o ka US LNG i kēia pule ma muli o ka lohi o ke koi a me ka emi ʻana o ka hopohopo, a ua emi nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku.

Mai kahi manaʻo loea, ʻo ka United States Henry Port futures (NG) he mokuʻāina haʻahaʻa e piʻi aʻe, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka United States Henry Port futures (NG) i 3.34 US dollars/miliona Pelekane kokoke i ke kuni, ʻo KDJ haʻahaʻa e kokoke ana e piʻi aʻe mai loko mai o ka ʻāpana, MACD ma lalo o ka zero bottoming, ua pau ka emi ʻana, ua hōʻike ke kumukūʻai o ka United States Henry Port futures (NG) i kēia pule i kahi ʻano rebound i lalo.

Ma ʻEulopa, ua hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o ka waihona o ka mākeke ʻEulopa, e like me ka hōʻike ʻana o ka ʻikepili o ka European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, i ka lā 23 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ka nui o ka waihona ma ʻEulopa he 1123Twh, me ka mahele o ka mana he 98.63%, he piʻi ʻana o 0.05% ma mua o ka lā ma mua, a me ka piʻi mau ʻana o ka waihona.

Ua noho kiʻekiʻe a loli mau nā mākeke ʻEulopa i kēia pule, a ua koi ke kūlana ma ka Hikina Waena iā Chevron e pani i kāna kahua kinoea ma waho o ke kai ma Suria, a ua hoʻomau ka mākeke i ka hopohopo, akā ua kiʻekiʻe a loli mau nā kumukūʻai o TTF futures ma muli o ka lako nui o ka mākeke i kēia manawa.

Ma ka lā 24 o ʻOkakopa, ua manaʻo ʻia ke kumukūʻai kiko o ke Kinoea Kūlohelohe o US Port Henry (HH) he $2.95 / mmBTU, he piʻi $0.01 / mmBTU mai ka hapaha i hala (10.17), he piʻi o 0.34%. ʻO ke kumukūʻai kiko o ke Kinoea Kūlohelohe o Kanada (AECO) he $1.818 / mmBTU, he piʻi $0.1 / mmBTU mai ka mahina i hala (10.17), he piʻi o 5.83%.

Manaʻo ʻo Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) e mau ana ke kūpaʻa o nā kumukūʻai kikoʻī, ua nāwaliwali nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku i ka LNG, e mau ana ke kūpaʻa o ke koi nui o ka mākeke mea kūʻai aku ma waho o ka ʻāina, ʻaʻohe kākoʻo maikaʻi maopopo, manaʻo ʻia e mau ana ke kūpaʻa o ke kumukūʻai kikoʻī ʻo Henry Port Natural Gas (HH).

Ma ʻOkakopa 24, ʻo ke kumukūʻai hōʻea wahi ʻo Northeast Asia ma Kina (DES) he $17.25 / miliona BTU, i piʻi aʻe he $0.875 / miliona BTU mai ka hapaha i hala (10.17), he piʻi aʻe o 5.34%; ʻO ke kumukūʻai wahi TTF he $14.955 / mmBTU, i piʻi aʻe he $0.898 / mmBTU mai ka hapaha i hala (10.17), he piʻi aʻe o 6.39%.

Ke piʻi nei ke ʻano o nā kumukūʻai kūʻai nui o nā mea kūʻai aku, ua piha ka makaʻu o nā mea kūʻai aku i kēia manawa, ua ikaika ka noʻonoʻo kuhi o ka mākeke, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai kūʻai aku o nā mea kūʻai aku ma uka, e hoʻokele ana i nā kumukūʻai mea kūʻai nui.

b) Waihona

No ka pule i pau i ʻOkakopa 13, e like me ka US Energy Agency, ʻo ka waihona kinoea kūlohelohe o US he 3,626 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, he piʻi ʻana o 97 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, a i ʻole 2.8%; ʻO ka waihona he 3,000 kapuaʻi cubic, a i ʻole 9.0%, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki i hala. ʻO ia hoʻi he 175 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, a i ʻole 5.1%, ma luna o ka awelika o ʻelima mau makahiki.

No ka pule i pau i ʻOkakopa 13, ua kū ka waihona kinoea ʻEulopa ma 3,926.271 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, i piʻi aʻe he 43.34 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, a i ʻole 1.12%, mai ka pule i hala, e like me ka European Gas Infrastructure Association. ʻO ka waihona he 319.287 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, a i ʻole 8.85%, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki ma mua.

I kēia pule, ua piʻi mau ka waihona kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ma muli o ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai kiko, e alakaʻi ana i nā mea lawe mai i kahi ʻano kali a ʻike, ua hāʻule nui ke koi kūʻai kūʻai nui o ka mākeke mea kūʻai aku, a ua piʻi ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka waihona o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. Ua ulu mau nā waihona ma ʻEulopa, i kēia manawa e piʻi ana i kahi kokoke i 98%, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e lohi ka emi ʻana o ka ulu ʻana o ka waihona i ka wā e hiki mai ana.

c) Ka lawe ʻana mai a me ka hoʻokuʻu aku i nā wai

Manaʻo ʻia ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e hoʻokomo mai i 0m³ i kēia pōʻaiapuni (10.23-10.29); Manaʻo ʻia ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e hoʻokuʻu aku i 3,900,000 m³, ʻo ia hoʻi he 4.88% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu aku maoli o 410,00,000 m³ i ka pōʻaiapuni ma mua.

I kēia manawa, ʻo ka nāwaliwali o ke koi ma ka mākeke mea kūʻai nui a me ka nui o nā waihona i alakaʻi i ka emi ʻana o nā hoʻokuʻu aku o US LNG.

a) ʻIke ākea o ka mākeke

Ma ʻOkakopa 25, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ke kahua LNG he 5,268 yuan/ton, piʻi 7% mai ka pule i hala, iho 32.45% makahiki-ma-makahiki; ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka wahi hana nui he 4,772 yuan/ton, piʻi 8.53% mai ka pule i hala a iho 27.43% makahiki-ma-makahiki.

Hōʻike nā kumukūʻai o uka i kahi ʻano piʻi. Ma muli o ke kumukūʻai e piʻi nei o ka hale hana wai o Northwest a me ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka wai kai, ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai o uka a ua hoʻokele ʻia nā ukana e nā kumukūʻai ukana e piʻi nei.

Ma ʻOkakopa 25, ʻo ke kumukūʻai awelika o ka LNG i loaʻa ma ka ʻāina holoʻokoʻa he 5208 yuan/ton, piʻi 7.23% mai ka pule i hala a iho 28.12% makahiki ma hope o ka makahiki. Hoʻopilikia ʻia nā kumuwaiwai uka e ke kumukūʻai o ka hoʻouna ʻana, e hoʻokele ana i ka mākeke e loaʻa i nā kumukūʻai waiwai kiʻekiʻe.

I ka lā 24 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ka huina o nā hale hana LNG kūloko he 328,300 tons i ka lā hoʻokahi, i emi iho he 14.84% mai ka wā ma mua. I ka hoʻokiʻekiʻe mau ʻana o nā kumukūʻai a kūʻai aku i nā waiwai, ua ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā kumuwaiwai mua, kahi i alakaʻi ai i ka emi ʻana o ka waihona.

b) Hoʻolako

I kēia pule (10.19-10.25) ua hōʻike ka nui o ka hana o 236 mau hale hana LNG kūloko i ka hana maoli o 742.94 miliona kuea, ʻo kēia helu hana Pōʻakolu o 64.6%, paʻa i ka pule i hala. ʻO ka nui o ka hana mana kūpono o kēia Pōʻakolu he 67.64%, piʻi aʻe he 0.01 pakeneka mai ka pule i hala. ʻO ka helu o nā hale hana hou no ka mālama ʻana a me ka pani ʻana he 1, me ka huina o 700,000 mika cubic/lā; ʻO ka helu o nā hale hana i hoʻomaka hou ʻia he 0, me ka huina o 0 miliona mika square/lā. (Nānā: Ua wehewehe ʻia ka mana hana ʻole ʻia he hana i hoʻopau ʻia no nā makahiki he 2 a ʻoi; ʻO ka mana kūpono e pili ana i ka mana LNG ma hope o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i ka mana hana ʻole. ʻO ka nui o ka mana hana LNG kūloko he 163.05 miliona mika cubic/lā, me 28 mau pani lōʻihi, 7.29 miliona mika cubic/lā o ka mana hana ʻole a me 155.76 miliona mika cubic/lā o ka mana hana kūpono.)

Ma ke ʻano o nā wai kai, ua loaʻa he 20 mau mea lawe LNG ma 13 mau kikowaena loaʻa kūloko i kēia pōʻaiapuni, he piʻi ʻana o 5 mau moku ma mua o ka pule i hala, a ʻo ka nui o ke awa he 1,291,300 tons, 37.49% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 939,200 tons i ka pule i hala. ʻO nā ʻāina kumu nui o ka lawe mai i kēia pōʻaiapuni ʻo Australia, Qatar a me Malaysia, me nā hōʻea ʻana o ke awa he 573,800 tons, 322,900 tons a me 160,700 tons. Ma kēlā me kēia kikowaena loaʻa, ua loaʻa iā CNOOC Dapeng he 3 mau moku, ua loaʻa iā CNPC Caofeidian lāua ʻo CNOOC Binhai he 2 mau moku, a ua loaʻa i nā kikowaena loaʻa ʻē aʻe he 1 moku.

c) Koi

ʻO ka nui o ke koi LNG kūloko i kēia pule (10.18-10.24) he 721,400 tons, he emi ʻana o 53,700 tons, a i ʻole 6.93%, mai ka pule i hala (10.11-10.17). ʻO ka huina o nā ukana hale hana kūloko he 454,200 tons, he emi ʻana o 35,800 tons, a i ʻole 7.31%, mai ka pule i hala (10.11-10.17). Ma muli o ke kahua hoʻokipa a me ka hale hana wai i hoʻokiʻekiʻe i ke kumukūʻai o ka hoʻouna ʻana, ʻo ke kūʻē ʻana i ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻokipa ʻana i ka hopena o ka hopena, e hoʻokele ana i ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka hoʻouna.

Ma ke ʻano o nā wai kai, ʻo ka nui o nā ukana o nā kikowaena hoʻokipa kūloko he 14,055 mau kaʻa, i emi iho he 9.48% mai 14,055 mau kaʻa i ka pule i hala (10.11-10.17), ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ke kikowaena hoʻokipa i ke kumukūʻai o nā ukana, ua ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o nā ukana ma hope, a ua emi ka nui o nā ukana o nā pahu.