Ua noho kiʻekiʻe a paʻakikī nā mākeke o ʻEulopa i kēia pule, a ʻo ke kūlana ma ka Hikina Hikina i koi ʻia ʻo Chevron e pani i kāna kahua kinoea waho ma Suria, a ua hoʻomau ka mākeke, akā ua kiʻekiʻe nā kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana TTF ma muli o ka oversupply o kēia manawa.

Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ma muli o ka lohi o ka noi a me ka nāwaliwali o ka makaʻu, ua hōʻole ka United States LNG exports i kēia pule, ua emi ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana aku, a ua nāwaliwali ka hoʻolako ʻana o ke kinoea maka mai nā terminal export, akā ma muli o ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā ʻaelike NG futures. i kēia mahina, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ke kinoea maoli ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

a) Nānā makeke

Ma ka lā 24 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe ʻo Henry Port (NG) i ka wā e hiki mai ana he 3.322 US dollars/million British thermal, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka pōʻai mua (10.17) i hoʻonui ʻia e 0.243 US dollars/million British thermal, he piʻi o 7.89%; ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe Dutch (TTF) i ka wā e hiki mai ana he $15.304 / mmBTU, piʻi $0.114 / mmBTU mai ka pōʻai mua (10.17), a i ʻole 0.75%.

Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hōʻike nā kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana ʻo Henry Port (NG) i kahi ʻano rebound ma hope o ka hāʻule holoʻokoʻa o ka pule, ua hōʻike nā kumukūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ke ʻano i lalo i kēia pule, akā ma muli o ka hopena o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka ʻaelike. Ua piʻi nā kumukūʻai o NG futures.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻokuʻu aku, hāʻule ka US LNG exports i kēia pule ma muli o ka lohi o ka noi a me ka pau ʻana o ka makaʻu, a ua emi nā mea kūʻai aku.

Mai ka ʻike loea, ʻo ka United States Henry Port futures (NG) he mokuʻāina haʻahaʻa e ala aʻe, ʻo ke kumukūʻai ʻo United States Henry Port futures (NG) i 3.34 US dollars/million British fever kokoke, KDJ haʻahaʻa kokoke e ala i waho. ʻO ka mākia, MACD ma lalo o zero bottoming, ua pau ka emi ʻana, ʻo ke kumukūʻai ʻo Henry Port futures (NG) o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kēia pule i hōʻike i kahi ʻano rebound i lalo.

Ma ʻEulopa, ua hoʻomau ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka mākeke mākeke ʻEulopa, e like me ka hōʻike ʻana o ka European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association e hōʻike ana i ka lā 23 ʻOkakopa, ʻo 1123Twh ka huina holoʻokoʻa ma ʻEulopa, me ka mana o 98.63%, kahi hoʻonui o 0.05% ma ka i ka lā ma mua, a me ka hoʻonui mau i ka waihona.

Ua noho kiʻekiʻe a paʻakikī nā mākeke o ʻEulopa i kēia pule, a ʻo ke kūlana ma ka Hikina Hikina i koi ʻia ʻo Chevron e pani i kāna kahua kinoea waho ma Suria, a ua hoʻomau ka mākeke, akā ua kiʻekiʻe nā kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana TTF ma muli o ka oversupply o kēia manawa.

Ma ka lā 24 ʻOkakopa, manaʻo ʻia ka US Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) e ʻike i nā kumukūʻai o $2.95 / mmBTU, piʻi $0.01 / mmBTU mai ka hapaha mua (10.17), he piʻi o 0.34%. ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ka Canadian Natural Gas (AECO) he $1.818 / mmBTU, piʻi $0.1 / mmBTU mai ka mahina i hala (10.17), he piʻi o 5.83%.

Manaʻo ʻo Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) i nā kumu kūʻai wahi e paʻa mau, ua nāwaliwali nā hoʻokuʻu ʻana o LNG, ʻo ke koi nui o nā mea kūʻai aku ma waho o ka ʻāina e noho paʻa, ʻaʻohe kākoʻo maikaʻi ʻike, ʻo Henry Port Natural gas (HH) e manaʻo ʻia e noho mau nā kumukūʻai wahi. .

Ma ka lā 24 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ke kumukūʻai ʻo Northeast Asia kahi i hōʻea ai ʻo Kina (DES) he $17.25 / miliona BTU, ma luna o $0.875 / miliona BTU mai ka hapaha mua (10.17), he piʻi o 5.34%; ʻO ke kumu kūʻai wahi TTF he $14.955 / mmBTU, piʻi $0.898 / mmBTU mai ka hapaha mua (10.17), he piʻi o 6.39%.

Ke piʻi aʻe nei nā kumukūʻai o nā mea kūʻai aku, ua piha ka makaʻu nui o nā mea kūʻai aku, ikaika ka manaʻo noʻonoʻo o ka mākeke, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea kūʻai aku i ke kumu kūʻai kūʻai, ua piʻi ke kumu kūʻai.

b) Ka waihona

No ka pule i pau i ka la 13 o Oct., e like me ka US Energy Agency, he 3,626 biliona cubic kapuai ka nui o na waihona kinoea maoli o Amerika, he 97 biliona cubic kapuai, a he 2.8% paha; He 3,000 cubic feet, a i ʻole 9.0%, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki i hala. ʻO ia ka 175 billion cubic feet, a i ʻole 5.1%, ma luna o ka awelika ʻelima makahiki.

No ka pule i pau i ka la 13 o Okatoba, ua ku mai na waiwai kinoea Europa ma 3,926.271 billion cubic feet, i 43.34 billion cubic feet, a i ole 1.12%, mai ka pule aku nei, e like me ka European Gas Infrastructure Association. He 319.287 billion cubic feet, a i ʻole 8.85%, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki ma mua.

I kēia pule, ua piʻi mau ka US waiwai kinoea waiwai, ma muli o ke kiʻekiʻe o ke kumukūʻai, e alakaʻi ana i ka poʻe lawe mai i ka manaʻo kali-a-ʻike, ua hāʻule nui ke koi kūʻai wahi kūʻai mea kūʻai aku, ua piʻi ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o ka US. Ua ulu mau nā mea waiwai ma ʻEulopa, i kēia manawa ke piʻi nei i kahi kokoke i 98%, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei ka emi ʻana o ka ulu waiwai i ka wā e hiki mai ana.

c) Ka lawe ʻana a me ka lawe ʻana aku i ka wai

Manaʻo ʻia ka US e lawe mai i 0m³ i kēia pōʻai (10.23-10.29); Manaʻo ʻia ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e hoʻokuʻu aku i 3,900,000 m³, ʻo ia ka 4.88% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka nui o ka hoʻoiho maoli ʻana o 410,00,000 m³ i ka pōʻai mua.

I kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka nāwaliwali o ka noi ma ka mākeke mea kūʻai nui a me nā mea waiwai kiʻekiʻe i alakaʻi i ka emi ʻana o ka US LNG exports.

a) Nānā makeke

Ma ka lā 25 o ʻOkakopa, ʻo 5,268 yuan/ton ke kumu kūʻai kūʻai ʻo LNG, ua piʻi ka 7% mai ka pule i hala aku nei, ma lalo o 32.45% i kēlā me kēia makahiki; ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o ka wahi hana nui he 4,772 yuan / ton, piʻi 8.53% mai ka pule i hala a iho i lalo o 27.43% makahiki-ma-makahiki.

Hōʻike nā kumukūʻai i luna i kahi ʻano piʻi. Ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka mea kanu wai o Northwest a me ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka wai kai, ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻia nā kumukūʻai o uka a ke alakaʻi ʻia nei nā hoʻouna ʻana e ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai.

Ma ka lā 25 ʻOkakopa, ʻo ka awelika kumu kūʻai o LNG i loaʻa i ka ʻāina he 5208 yuan/ton, piʻi 7.23% mai ka pule i hala aku nei a i lalo he 28.12% makahiki ma ka makahiki. Hoʻopili ʻia nā kumu waiwai i luna e ke kumukūʻai o ka hoʻouna ʻana, e hoʻokau i ka mākeke e loaʻa nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe.

Ma ʻOkakopa 24, ʻo ka huina o nā mea kanu LNG kūloko he 328,300 tons ma ka lā hoʻokahi, ma lalo o 14.84% mai ka wā ma mua. I ka hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻana o nā kumukūʻai a kūʻai aku i nā waiwai, ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o ke kūʻai ʻana i nā kumu waiwai mua, a ua alakaʻi i ka emi ʻana o ka waihona.

b) Hoolako

ʻO kēia pule (10.19-10.25) ka helu hana o 236 home LNG mea kanu noiʻi ʻikepili hōʻike i ka hana maoli o 742.94 miliona square, i kēia Pōʻakolu e hana ana i ka 64.6%, paʻa i ka pule i hala. I kēia Pōʻakolu, ʻo 67.64% ka nui o ka hana ʻana, ʻoi aku ka 0.01 pakeneka mai ka pule i hala. ʻO ka nui o nā mea kanu hou no ka mālama ʻana a me ka pani ʻana he 1, me ka nui o 700,000 cubic mika / lā; ʻO ka helu o nā hale hana hou i hoʻomaka hou ʻia he 0, me ka nui o ka nui o 0 miliona square square / lā. (E hoʻomaopopo: Ua wehewehe ʻia ka hiki ʻole ke hoʻopau ʻia ka hana ʻana no nā makahiki ʻoi aku ma mua o 2 mau makahiki; ʻO ka mana kūpono e pili ana i ka mana LNG ma hope o ka haʻalele ʻana i ka hiki ʻole. miliona cubic mika/lā o ka hana ʻole a me 155.76 miliona cubic mika/lā o ka mana kūpono.)

Ma ke ʻano o ka wai kai, he 20 mau mea lawe LNG i loaʻa ma 13 hale hoʻokipa hale i kēia pōʻai, he piʻi o 5 mau moku ma mua o ka pule i hala, a ʻo ka nui o ke awa he 1,291,300 tons, 37.49% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 939,200 tons i ka pule i hala. ʻO nā ʻāina kumu hoʻokomo nui i kēia pōʻai ʻo Australia, Qatar a me Malaysia, me ka hōʻea ʻana i nā awa he 573,800 tons, 322,900 tons a me 160,700 tons, kēlā me kēia. Ma kēlā me kēia hale hoʻokipa, loaʻa iā CNOOC Dapeng nā moku 3, CNPC Caofeidian a me CNOOC Binhai i loaʻa i 2 mau moku pākahi, a ʻo nā keʻena hoʻokipa ʻē aʻe i loaʻa i 1 moku paʻa.

c) Koi

ʻO ka nui o ka noi LNG kūloko i kēia pule (10.18-10.24) he 721,400 tons, he emi o 53,700 tons, a i ʻole 6.93%, mai ka pule i hala (10.11-10.17). He 454,200 tons ka nui o na ukana hale hana hale, he emi o 35,800 tons, a i ole 7.31%, mai ka pule aku nei (10.11-10.17). Ma muli o ka loaʻa ʻana o ke kahua a me ka wai mea kanu ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe i ke kumukūʻai o ka hoʻouna ʻana, ʻo ka hopena o ka downstream kiʻekiʻe kumu kūʻai hoʻokipa kūʻē, hoʻokele i ka hoʻemi ʻana.

Ma ke ano o ka wai kai, he 14,055 kaa ka nui o ka lawe ana mai o na hale hookipa hale, he 9.48% mai ka 14,055 kaa i ka pule aku nei (10.11-10.17), ua hookiekie ke kahua hookipa i ke kumukuai o na ukana, ua oi aku ke kupaa o na moku i lalo, Ua hōʻole ka nui o ka lawe ʻana o nā pahu pahu.