He ʻokoʻa nā koi o nā ʻāpana mākeke like ʻole no ka maikaʻi a me ke kumukūʻai o ka ammonia.

Mai ka makahiki 2022, ua hoʻokomo ʻia ka hoʻolālā papahana ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo kūloko i ke kūkulu ʻana, me ka noʻonoʻo ʻana he 2 a 3 mau makahiki ka lōʻihi o ke kūkulu ʻana o ka papahana, e hoʻomaka ana ka papahana ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo kūloko i ka hana kikowaena. Ua wānana ka ʻoihana e hiki i ka makahiki 2024, e hoʻokō ka ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo kūloko i ke komo ʻana i ka mākeke, a e kokoke ana ka hiki ke hoʻolako i 1 miliona tons/makahiki ma ka makahiki 2025. Mai ka manaʻo o ke koi mākeke no ka ammonia synthetic, he ʻokoʻa nā koi o nā ʻāpana mākeke like ʻole no ka maikaʻi o ka huahana a me ke kumukūʻai o ka ammonia synthetic, a he mea pono hoʻi e hoʻomaka mai nā ʻano o kēlā me kēia loulou mākeke e ʻimi i ka manawa kūpono o ka mākeke o ka ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo.

Ma muli o ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa o ka lako a me ke koi o ka ammonia synthetic ma Kina, ke koi ʻana o ka maikaʻi o ka huahana o kēlā me kēia ʻāpana mākeke a me ke kumukūʻai o ka ammonia, ua kālailai wale ka noiʻi ʻo NENG Jing i ka loaʻa kālā a me ka mākeke o ka ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo ma kēlā me kēia kuhikuhi mākeke no ka ʻike ʻoihana.

01 ʻEkolu mau kuhikuhi nui ko ka mākeke ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo

I kēia pae, ua kaulike like ʻole ka lako a me ke koi o ka mākeke ammonia synthetic kūloko, a aia kekahi kaomi keu.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao koi, ke hoʻomau nei ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ʻike ʻia. Wahi a ka National Bureau of Statistics a me ka ʻikepili dute, ua noho aliʻi ʻia ka mākeke ammonia synthetic e ka hoʻohana ʻana i loko o ka home, a e piʻi aʻe ka hoʻohana ʻana i ʻike ʻia o ka ammonia synthetic kūloko ma kahi o 1% i kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 2020 a i 2022, e hōʻea ana ma kahi o 53.2 miliona tons i ka makahiki 2022. I ka makahiki 2025, me ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka hana ʻana o ka caprolactam a me nā mea hana ʻē aʻe ma hope, manaʻo ʻia e kākoʻo i ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ammonia synthetic, a e hōʻea ka hoʻohana ʻana i ʻike ʻia i 60 miliona tons.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻolako, aia ka nui o ka hiki ke hana o ka ammonia synthetic i ke kahua o ka "bottoming out". Wahi a ka ʻikepili o ka Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, mai ka wehe ʻana o ka hiki ke hana hope o ka ammonia synthetic ma Kina i ka wā "13th Five-Year Plan", ua hoʻopau ʻia ka hoʻoponopono ʻana o ka hiki ke hana i ka makahiki 2022, a ua loli ka hiki ke hana o ka ammonia synthetic mai ka emi ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana no ka manawa mua, e hoʻōla ana mai 64.88 miliona tons/makahiki i ka makahiki 2021 a i 67.6 miliona tons/makahiki, a ʻoi aku ma mua o 4 miliona tons/makahiki o ka hiki makahiki (koe naʻe ka ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo) i hoʻolālā ʻia e pae. I ka makahiki 2025, ʻo ka hiki ke hana a ʻoi aku paha ma mua o 70 miliona tons/makahiki, kiʻekiʻe ka pilikia o ka overcapacity.

ʻO ka mahiʻai, ka ʻoihana kemika a me ka ikehu nā ʻaoʻao mākeke nui ʻekolu o ka ammonia synthetic a me ka ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo. ʻO nā kahua mahiʻai a me nā kemika ke kumu kūʻai o ka ammonia synthetic. Wahi a ka ʻikepili o Zhuochuang Information, i ka makahiki 2022, ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ammonia synthetic ma ke kahua mahiʻai e helu no kahi 69% o ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka ammonia synthetic ma Kina, ʻo ia hoʻi no ka hana ʻana o ka urea, ka mea hoʻoulu phosphate a me nā mea hoʻoulu ʻē aʻe; ʻO ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka ammonia synthetic ma ka ʻoihana kemika e helu no kahi 31%, kahi i hoʻohana nui ʻia i ka hana ʻana o nā huahana kemika e like me ka nitric acid, caprolactam a me acrylonitrile. ʻO ka ʻāpana ikehu ka mākeke hoʻonui e hiki mai ana no ka ammonia synthetic. Wahi a nā helu helu a me nā helu o ka noiʻi Energy, i kēia manawa, ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka ammonia synthetic ma ke kahua ikehu he emi iho ia ma mua o 0.1% o ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka ammonia synthetic, a ma ka makahiki 2050, ua manaʻo ʻia ka hapa o ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka ammonia synthetic ma ke kahua ikehu e hiki aku ma mua o 25%, a ʻo nā hiʻohiʻona noi hiki ke komo pū me nā mea lawe mālama hydrogen, nā wahie halihali, a me ka puhi ʻana o ka ammonia-doped i nā mea kanu mana wela.

02 Koi mahiʻai - He ikaika ka kaohi kumukūʻai ma hope, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka loaʻa kālā ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo, ua paʻa iki ke koi no ka ammonia ma ke kahua mahiʻai. ʻO ke ʻano hoʻohana ammonia ma ke kahua mahiʻai e pili ana i ka hana ʻana o ka urea a me ka ammonium phosphate fertilizer. I waena o lākou, ʻo ka hana ʻana o ka urea ka ʻano hoʻohana ammonia nui loa ma ke kahua mahiʻai, a ua hoʻopau ʻia he 0.57-0.62 tons o ka ammonia no kēlā me kēia 1 tons o ka urea i hana ʻia. Wahi a ka National Bureau of Statistics, mai 2018 a 2022, ua loli ka hana ʻana o ka urea kūloko ma kahi o 50 miliona tons/makahiki, a ʻo ke koi like no ka ammonia synthetic ma kahi o 30 miliona tons/makahiki. ʻO ka nui o ka ammonia i hoʻopau ʻia e ka ammonium phosphate fertilizer ma kahi o 5 miliona tons/makahiki, he paʻa nō hoʻi.

ʻO ka hana ʻana o ka mea hoʻouluulu nitrogen ma ke kahua mahiʻai he mau koi hoʻomaha iki no ka maʻemaʻe a me ka maikaʻi o nā mea maka ammonia. Wahi a ke kūlana aupuni GB536-88, he huahana maikaʻi loa ka ammonia wai, nā huahana papa mua, nā huahana kūpono ʻekolu mau papa, ua hōʻea ka nui o ka ammonia i 99.9%, 99.8%, 99.6% a ʻoi aku paha. ʻO ka mea hoʻouluulu nitrogen, e like me ka urea, he mau koi ākea no ka maikaʻi a me ka maʻemaʻe o nā huahana, a koi pinepine nā mea hana i nā mea maka ammonia wai e hiki ai i ka papa o nā huahana kūpono. He haʻahaʻa ke kumukūʻai holoʻokoʻa o ka ammonia ma ka mahiʻai. Mai ka manaʻo o ka lako o ka ammonia a me ke kumukūʻai o ka ammonia, ʻo ka urea kūloko a me kekahi hana mea hoʻouluulu ammonium phosphate he hale hana ammonia i kūkulu ponoʻī ʻia, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka ammonia e pili ana i ke kumukūʻai mākeke o ka lanahu, ke kinoea kūlohelohe a me ka pono o ka hale hana ammonia, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka ammonia maʻamau he 1500 ~ 3000 yuan/ton. Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ke kumukūʻai i ʻae ʻia o nā mea maka ammonia ma ke kahua mahiʻai he emi ma mua o 4000 yuan/ton. Wahi a ka ʻikepili huahana nui o ke kaiāulu ʻoihana, mai 2018 a 2022, ʻo ka urea ma kahi o 2,600 yuan/ton ma ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe loa, a ma kahi o 1,700 yuan/ton ma ke kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa loa. Ua hui pū ʻia ka noiʻi ikehu me nā pae like ʻole o nā kumukūʻai mea maka piha, nā kumukūʻai hana a me nā mea ʻē aʻe, inā ʻaʻohe pohō, ʻo ka urea ma nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe a me nā haʻahaʻa loa e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai ammonia ma kahi o 3900 yuan/ton a i 2200 yuan/ton, ma ka laina kumukūʻai ammonia ʻōmaʻomaʻo a ma lalo o ka pae.