Ma ʻEulopa, ke emi nei ka mākeke i kēia pule i ka wā e hōʻemi ana ke kahua Troll ma Norewai i ka hana ma mua o ka laulā o nā hoʻolālā mālama mua, ua piʻi aʻe nā waihona kinoea kūlohelohe i kahi kiʻekiʻe akā ua emi iho, akā ua hāʻule nā ​​​​kumukūʻai TTF futures i ka wā e nui loa ai nā waihona ma ka ʻāina.

Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, i ka lā 28 o Iulai, manawa kūloko, ua hoʻi ka paipu kinoea kūlohelohe i haki kokoke i Strasburg, Virginia, i ke kahe maʻamau, a ua hoʻi ka lawe ʻana o ke kinoea kūlohelohe i ke kikowaena kinoea wai ʻo Cove Point i ka maʻamau, a ua hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe (NG) ma Port Henry ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana.

a) ʻIke ākea o ka mākeke

Ma ʻAukake 1, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana o ke kinoea kūlohelohe (NG) o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Henry Port he 2.56 US kālā/miliona Pelekane thermal, i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ke kaʻina hana ma mua (07.25) i lalo he 0.035 US kālā/miliona Pelekane thermal, i lalo he 1.35%; ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana o ke kinoea kūlohelohe Dutch (TTF) he $8.744/miliona BTU, i lalo he $0.423/miliona Btu mai ke kaʻina hana ma mua (07.25), a i ʻole 4.61%.

Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Henry Port (NG) a laila ua emi iho i ka wā o ka pule, ua kiʻekiʻe mau ka mahana kūloko o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, nui ka noi no ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke kinoea kūlohelohe kūloko, akā i ka lā 28 o Iulai i ka manawa kūloko, ua hoʻi hou ka paipu kinoea kūlohelohe i haki kokoke iā Strasburg, Virginia, i ke kahe maʻamau, a ua hoʻi hou ka lawe ʻana i ke kinoea kūlohelohe i ke kikowaena kinoea wai ʻo Cove Point i ka maʻamau. Ua emi hou ke kumukūʻai o ka wā e hiki mai ana o ke kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Port Henry (NG) ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana.

Ma ke ʻano o nā mea e hoʻokuʻu aku ai, ua paʻa ke koi o ka mākeke Eurasian i kēia pule, ua hoʻopilikia ʻia nā mea e hoʻokuʻu aku ai i ka LNG o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e nā kumu kulekele kaʻa o ke Canal Panama, ua kaupalena ʻia ka wikiwiki o ka hele ʻana ma Northeast Asia, ua koi ʻia e hōʻemi nā mea e hoʻokuʻu aku ai i ke kikowaena kinoea maoli o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a ke emi nei nā mea e hoʻokuʻu aku ai i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

Mai kahi manaʻo loea, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka US Henry Port futures (NG) he ʻano iho, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka US Henry Port futures (NG) i 2.57 US kālā/miliona BTU, ua hoʻomau ʻo KDJ i ka emi ʻana ma hope o ka make ʻana o ka ʻōpuʻu, nui ka momentum i lalo, hōʻike mau ka MACD i kahi ʻano iho ma hope o ka make ʻana o ka ʻōpuʻu, e hoʻomau ka emi ʻana o ka mea hope, ua hōʻike ke kumukūʻai o ka US Henry Port futures (NG) i kēia pule i kahi ʻano iho.

Ma ʻEulopa, ua emi iho ka waihona o ka mākeke ʻEulopa, e like me ka hōʻike ʻana o ka ʻikepili o ka European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, e like me ka lā 31 o Iulai, ʻo ka waihona holoʻokoʻa ma ʻEulopa he 964Twh, ʻo ka mahele o ka mālama ʻana he 85.43%, he 0.36% ka emi ma mua o ka lā ma mua.

Ke emi nei nā mākeke ʻEulopa i kēia pule i ka wā e hōʻemi ana ke kahua Troll ma Norewai i ka hana ma mua o ka laulā o nā hoʻolālā mālama mua, ua piʻi aʻe nā waihona kinoea kūlohelohe akā ua emi iho, akā ua hāʻule nā ​​​​kumukūʻai TTF futures i ka wā e nui loa ai nā waihona ma ka ʻāina.

Ma ʻAukake 1, ua manaʻo ʻia e kūʻai ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ke Kinoea Kūlohelohe o US Port Henry (HH) he $2.6 / mmBTU, i lalo he $0.06 / mmBTU, a i ʻole 2.26%, mai ka hapaha i hala (07.25). ʻO ke kumukūʻai kiko o ke Kinoea Kūlohelohe o Kanada (AECO) he $2.018 / mmBTU, i piʻi he $0.077 / mmBTU, a i ʻole 3.99%, mai ka mahina i hala (07.25).

Manaʻo ʻo Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) e emi ana nā kumukūʻai kikoʻī a e hoʻomaka hou ka lako kinoea hānai ma Cove Point, akā manaʻo ʻo Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) e emi ana nā kumukūʻai kikoʻī ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻokuʻu aku ʻana o ka US LNG ma muli o nā kapu o ke kahe ʻana o ke kahawai ʻo Panama.

Ma ʻAukake 1, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka hōʻea ʻana o Kina ma kahi o ʻĀkau Hikina o Asia (DES) he 10.733 kālā US/miliona BTU, i lalo he 0.456 kālā US/miliona BTU mai ka hapaha i hala (07.25), i lalo he 4.08%; ʻO ke kumukūʻai TTF ma kahi he $8.414 / mmBTU, i lalo he $0.622 / mmBTU mai ka hapaha i hala (07.25), he emi ʻana o 6.88%.

Ke emi nei ke kumukūʻai kikoʻī o nā wahi kūʻai nui, ua mau ke kūpaʻa o ke koi ma ʻEulopa a me ʻĀsia holoʻokoʻa, ua lawa ka waihona ma ka mākeke kūloko, a ua hoʻomau ka mākeke i ka lako nui, a ua alakaʻi i ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kikoʻī a puni ka ʻāina.

b) Waihona

I ka hopena o ka pule i pau i Iulai 21, e like me ka hōʻike a ka US Energy Agency, ʻo ka waihona kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa he 2,987 biliona kapuaʻi kūpika, he piʻi aʻe o 16 biliona kapuaʻi kūpika, a i ʻole 0.54%; ʻO nā waihona he 5,730 kapuaʻi kūpika, a i ʻole 23.74%, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki i hala. ʻO ia hoʻi he 345 biliona kapuaʻi kūpika, a i ʻole 13.06%, ma luna o ka awelika o ʻelima mau makahiki.

I ka pule i pau i Iulai 21, e like me ka ʻikepili o ka European Gas Infrastructure Association, ʻo ka waihona o ke kinoea kūlohelohe ʻEulopa he 3,309,966 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, i piʻi aʻe he 79.150 biliona kapuaʻi cubic, a i ʻole 2.45%; ʻO ka waihona he 740.365 biliona kapuaʻi cubic kiʻekiʻe ma mua o hoʻokahi makahiki i hala, he piʻi ʻana o 28.81%.

I kēia pule, ua piʻi mālie ka mahana ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a ua piʻi ka noi no ke kinoea kūlohelohe ma ka ʻāina, e hoʻokele ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke kinoea kūlohelohe, a ua emi iho ka ulu ʻana o nā waihona kinoea kūlohelohe ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a ua nāwaliwali ka lako o uka ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a ua emi nui ka ulu ʻana o nā waihona.

Nā ʻano hana waihona kinoea kūlohelohe honua

c) Ka lawe ʻana mai a me ka hoʻokuʻu aku i nā wai

Ma kēia pōʻaiapuni (07.31-08.06) manaʻo ʻia e lawe mai ka US i 0m³; ʻO ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu aku i manaʻo ʻia o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa he 3700000m³, ʻo ia hoʻi he 5.13% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu aku maoli o 3900000m³ i ka pōʻaiapuni ma mua.

I kēia manawa, ke kūpaʻa nei ke koi no ka lawe ʻana mai o ka LNG Eurasian, i hoʻopilikia ʻia e nā kapu o ke kahe ʻana o ke Canal Panama, ua emi iho nā mea i hoʻokuʻu aku i ka LNG o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

a) ʻIke ākea o ka mākeke

Ma ʻAukake 2, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ke kahua loaʻa LNG he 4106 yuan/ton, iho 0.61% mai ka pule i hala, iho 42.23% makahiki-ma-makahiki; ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka wahi hana nui he 3,643 yuan/ton, iho 4.76% mai ka pule i hala a me 45.11% makahiki-ma-makahiki.

Ua hōʻike ʻia nā kumukūʻai kūloko ma uka i kahi ʻano iho, ua hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o nā kumuwaiwai wai kūloko, e hoʻokele ana i nā ukana ma uka, ua kūpaʻa nā kikowaena loaʻa ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, a ua emi ke kumukūʻai ukana mākeke holoʻokoʻa.

Ma ʻAukake 2, ʻo ke kumukūʻai awelika o ka LNG i loaʻa ma ka ʻāina holoʻokoʻa he 4,051 yuan/ton, i emi iho he 3.09% mai ka pule i hala a i emi iho he 42.8% i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Ua nāwaliwali ke koi ma lalo, ua hoʻomalu ʻia nā kumukūʻai ma uka i nā kumukūʻai ma lalo, a ua emi iho nā kumukūʻai ma ka mākeke.

I ka lā 2 o ʻAukake, ʻo ka nui o nā hale hana LNG kūloko he 306,300 tons i ka lā hoʻokahi, he 4.43% i piʻi aʻe mai ka wā ma mua. Ma muli o ka hopena o ka makani ʻino, ua ālai ʻia nā hoʻouna ʻana ma uka, a ua hoʻomau nā kūʻai aku ma uka i ka hoʻemi ʻana i nā kumukūʻai, akā ua nāwaliwali ke koi ma uka, a ua piʻi aʻe nā waihona o nā hale hana.

Palapala kumukūʻai LNG kūloko

b) Hoʻolako

I kēia pule (07.27-08.02) ua hōʻike ʻia he 233 mau ʻikepili noiʻi hana o ka hale hana LNG kūloko i ka hana maoli o 635,415 miliona kuea, ʻo ka hana o kēia Pōʻakolu he 56.6%, ua like ia me ka pule i hala. ʻO ka hana o kēia Pōʻakolu he 56.59%, i lalo he 2.76 pakeneka mai ka pule i hala. ʻO ka helu o nā hale hana hou no ka pani ʻana a me ka mālama ʻana he 4, me ka huina o 8 miliona mika cubic/lā; ʻO ka helu o nā hale hana i hoʻomaka hou ʻia he 7, me ka huina o 4.62 miliona mika cubic/lā. (Nānā: Ua wehewehe ʻia ka hana hana ʻole ʻia he hana i hoʻopau ʻia no nā makahiki he 2 a ʻoi; ʻO ka mana kūpono e pili ana i ka mana LNG ma hope o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i ka mana hana ʻole. ʻO ka huina o ka hana hana LNG kūloko he 159.75 miliona mika cubic/lā, me 28 mau pani lōʻihi, 7.29 miliona mika cubic/lā o ka mana hana ʻole a me 152.46 miliona mika cubic/lā o ka mana hana pono.

Ma ke ʻano o nā wai kai, ua loaʻa he 20 mau mea lawe LNG ma 14 mau kikowaena loaʻa kūloko i kēia pōʻaiapuni, me ka nui o nā moku i loaʻa i 1 moku i emi iho ma mua o ka pule i hala, a ʻo ka nui o ka hōʻea ʻana o ke awa he 1.403 miliona tons, piʻi 13.33% mai 1.26 miliona tons i ka pule i hala. ʻO nā ʻāina kumu nui o nā lawe mai i loko o kēia pōʻaiapuni ʻo Australia, Qatar a me Rusia, me nā hōʻea ʻana o 494,800 tons, 354,800 tons a me 223,800 tons. Ma ke ʻano o nā kikowaena loaʻa, ua loaʻa iā CNOOC Dapeng lāua ʻo State Grid Diafu he 3 mau moku, ua loaʻa iā CNOOC Zhuhai lāua ʻo State Grid Tianjin he 2 mau moku, a ua loaʻa i nā kikowaena loaʻa ʻē aʻe he 1 moku.

c) Koi

ʻO ka nui o ke koi LNG kūloko i kēia pule (07.26-08.01) he 702,900 tons, he emi ʻana o 10,500 tons, a i ʻole 1.47%, mai ka pule i hala (07.19-07.25). ʻO ka huina o nā ukana hale hana kūloko he 402,000 tons, i lalo he 0.17 miliona tons, a i ʻole 0.42%, mai ka pule i hala (07.19-07.25). Ua hoʻemi ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā hale hana wai i nā kumukūʻai, akā ma muli o ka transit typhoon, e hoʻopilikia ana i nā ukana uka, ua emi iki ka nui o nā ukana hale hana kūloko.

Ma ke ʻano o ke kai wai, ʻo ka nui o nā ukana o nā kikowaena loaʻa kūloko he 14327 mau kaʻa, i emi iho he 2.86% mai 14749 mau kaʻa i ka pule i hala (07.19-07.25), a ua emi iho ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā kikowaena loaʻa, a ua emi ka radius kūʻai aku o ka mākeke, kahi i alakaʻi ai i ka emi ʻana o nā ukana o nā pahu.6